Quick Look at New Data for our Area
Served by A Third Place Community Foundation
2016
Population
City of Tulsa area
Served by Us: north of 46th St.
Population declined
twice as much from 2012 as was projected to, down 11.2 percent from then, down
19.9 percent from 2000 at same time as national population grew by 14.6
percent; a difference gap of nearly 35 percent; now 9,082. In next five years
projected to increase by 1.2 percent compared to national projection of 3.7
percent.
Unincorporated area
Served by Us: generally north of 56th St. to 76th St.
Population
declined 11.4 percent from 2012, and has declined 14.9 percent from 2000 as the
national population increased by 14.6 percent, a gap of some 29.5 percent; it
is projected to rise barely to .01 percent by 2021. Currently 2,432.
Total population
served is 11,514.
Ethnicity
City
Side: Anglos 15.5 percent, expected to rise to 17.7; All others 84.5 percent;
African American population 69.3 percent (a drop from 85.5 percent in 2012),
projected to continue decline in five years to 64.7 percent. Note that 50 years
ago there was virtually zero percent African American population in the area.
Hispanics at 4.7 up from 2.2 percent in 2012, projected to rise to 5.5 percent
in five years.
County
side: Anglos at 55.6 percent expected to decline to 54.9 percent in 2021;
African American at 14.7 percent expected to decline to 13.6 percent. Hispanics
at 12.5 percent expected to rise to 14 percent in 2021. Native Americans and
others 17.3 percent staying about the same in 2021.
Age
City Side: Millenials 28.6 percent are top category but have declined from 34. 1 percent in 2012 and are projected to decline more to 26.6 percent.
Generation Z (0 to 14) 25.7 (most overrepresented group in the area) projected to rise to 33.2 percent in 2021, up from 15.8 in 2010 census and up from 19.1 percent in 2012 study.As the older populations decrease, the newest generation will automatically see its percentages increase; in multi generational families? families before school age?
So those born 1982 and later (0 to 34 years old) account for 44.3 percent of our population in this area;not much economic accumulation. Median age is 31.8
County Side: Survivors (age 35 to 55) 27.1% of the total population in the area. Boomers (age 56 to 73) make up 20.9% of the population which compared to a national average of 19.5% makes them the most over-represented group in the area. Median age is 39.5.
Income
City Side: Per capita income is
$12,857, up from 11,217 in 2012. projected to rise to 14,050 in 2021.
Oklahoma per capita income is $23,094. Median household income is $26,279. State
median is $42,979.
Some 31.2 percent of our Households have
average income under $15,000 at 31.2 percent, our top income percentage
category; this number has risen from 26.4 percent in 2010 census; projected to decline
to 29.5 percent in 2021.
Some 44.4 percent of households fall
below the povery line, and 23 percent of those have children. Poverty status is
below $24,250
for family of 4. Compares to 13.9 percent nationally, and 7.9 percent with
children.
Households without retirement income:
91.6 percent compared to 81.5 nationally.
County Side: Per capita income is
$18,929, expected to rise to $20,029 in five years. Median household income is $37,070, expected
to rise to $40,022.
Largest income category is those
making under 15,000 at 18.7 percent. Household below poverty line 20.2 percent,
11.9 percent with children. . Some 82.6 percent without retirement income.
Education
City
Side: 84.4 percent over 25yo graduated from high school (up from 73.3
percent in 2012) compared to national avg of 86.4 percent, but college
graduates 8.3 percent of those over 25 (compared to 7.6 percent in 2012) and
compared to 29.4 percent in US. Currently 15.4 percent enrolled in college
compared to national avg of 28.4 percent.
County
Side: 78 percent of those 25 and over have high school, college graduates
account for 9.7 percent, Enrolled in college is 17.4 percent.
Employment
City
Side: unemployment is 10.8 percent compared to 5.6 percent nationally, and 4.1
percent in Oklahoma.
County
Side: unemployment is 8.3 percent.
Transportation
City
side: Almost 13 percent no vehicle, some 42.2 percent with one vehicle. Some
51.9 percent travel up to 30 minutes to work. 17 percent travel up to 45
minutes;
County
Side: 4.2 percent no vehicle; 34.2 with one vehicle; 47.4 percent travel up to
30 minutes to work; 20.9 percent travel up to 45 minutes to work.
Cultural Concerns
City
Side: Metro Multi-Ethnic Diversity and Struggling Black Families are top two
cultural categories.
MMED--younger
segment than most, still contains a number of individuals in 40s and 50s.
single parent families and households with five or more persons ranks high, and
overall household size is somewhat above average. Income and education levels
low. Use of public transportation is double the national average and car
pooling is higher than national average for this form of transportation. Faith
involvement far above average in this segment: Rather than have a
strong leader they prefer to be left on their own without interference; concern
for twelve step programs, youth social programs, personal or family counseling,
church sponsored day school preferences.
SBF--This
segment is concentrated in urban areas particularly in the South. Almost half
of adults are without high school diplomas, median household income is far
below the national average, and four in ten households own no vehicle. This
segment leads all other groups in watching Saturday mid-day and afternoon
television. Strong faith involvement and belief in God are well above the
national average. Primary concerns are Racial/Ethnic Prejudice, Affordable
Housing (ranks number one), Neighborhood Gangs, Neighborhood Crime and Safety
(ranks number two), Abusive Relationships and Alcohol/Drug Abuse. This segment
ranks nearly last in concern for Recreation or Leisure Time.
Household
concerns: racial ethnic prejudice, finding spiritual teaching, neighborhood
gangs, crime and safety, finding good church, affordable housing
County
Side: Laboring Country Families (36.6 percent) and Working Country Consumers (15.7
percent).
LCF—
average in median
household income. Little more than half of the women are in the labor force.
Home ownership is high, with housing units typically being single family
dwellings, though property values are lower than most.
Faith
involvement is above the national average in all categories. Belief in God is
high, and acceptance of the changing racial/ethic face of America is low.
The
primary concerns of this group are Divorce, Finding Spiritual Teaching, Abusive
Relationships, Finding a Good Church, Teen/Child Problems and Parenting Skills.
WCC---
This segment is
evenly split between urban and rural populations. It consists of persons of all
ages, with income and education somewhat below average. Blue collar employment
is high, as are precision production and craft
occupations.
Over two-thirds of all homes are single-unit structures and mobile homes make
up a noticeable percentage of the total. The primary concerns of this group are
Adequate Food, Health Insurance, Day-to-Day Financial Worries, Finding
Spiritual Teaching, Abusive Relationships and Stress.
Below is some background summaries.
I. Our Service Area within the City
Limits
Population Overall Continues Dropping
9,082 residents, a drop of 19.9 percent since the year 2000
at same time US population grew by 14.6 percent.
Since our 2012 Percept Data
Study, this area has lost 1,155 residents or a drop of 11.2 percent (our 2012
study projected a decline of 5.1 percent, so it has more than doubled the
decline)
This parallels with the closure in 2012 of many of our neighborhood
schools by TPS, though all of them have now been reopened as charter or other
focused schools and not necessarily serving just the neighborhood area.It also reflects the continued difficulty in jobs, transportation, and abandoned structures, loss of post office.
But Projected to Grow: by 2021 the area is projected to
increase by 1.2 percent, or 110 additional persons compared to national growth
of 3.7 percent.
Lifestyle Diversity: overall low (12 or 50 lifestyles
represented; evidence of income and other segregations; metro multi-ethnic
diversity is most prevalent with 46 percent.
However, racial and ethnic diversity is extremely high compared to
national avg; Anglos 15.5 percent (projected to increase to 17.7 percent);
others 84.5 percent compared to national 39 percent nationally.
African
Americans at 69.3 percent of this population (was at 85.5 percent in 2012 and
had been projected to rise; remember that 50 years ago there was virtually zero
percent African Americans in this area). Projection for next five years: Native
Americans and others (Hispanics) projected to be fastest growing and increasing
numbers by 16.6 percent. In 2010 census Hispanics were 3.8 percent; in 2012
study were down to 2.2 percent (effect of state legislation causing cultural
retrenching); now at 4.7 percent and expected to continue rising to 5.5 percent.
Native Americans, Asian, Others now at 10.5 percent, an increase from 5.3
percent in 2012 study (which predicted a slow decline) and predicted to rise to
12.1 percent in 2021 compared to 8.6 percent in 2010 census.
[as the African
American population percentages decline, the percentages of remaining
ethnicities automatically rises].
Gender: 53.8 percent female up from 53.6 in 2012 study, down
from 54.2 in 2010 census and projected slight decline 53.5 percent in 2021.
Male at 46.2 expected to rise to 46.5 in 2021.
Generations: Millenials 28.6 percent projected decline to
26.6, down from 34. 1 percent in 2012;
Generation
Z (0 to 14) 25.7 (most overrepresented group in the area) projected to rise to
33.2 percent in 2021, up from 15.8 in 2010 census and up from 19.1 percent in
2012 study.As the older populations decrease, the newest generation will automatically see its percentages increase; in multi generational families? families before school age?
So those born 1982 and later (0 to 34 years old) account for 44.3 percent of our
population in this area;not much economic accumulation.
Survivors (1961 to 1981) at 23.3 percent up from 22.9 percent in
2012, down from 25.5 in 2010 and projected to decline to 22 percent in 2021. Boomers,
1943 to 1960 births, 17.2 percent which is up from 16.4 percent in 2012 study
though down from 20.1 percent in 2010 census, projected to decline to 14.5
percent in 2021. Silents and Builders, 1942 and earlier births, account for 5.2
percent (builders just .2 percent) projected to decline to 3.7 percent in 2021
down from 7.4 percent in 2010 and 7.5 percent in 2012…..Average age is 34.6
which is up from 31.4 in 2012 and projected to rise to 35.1 in 2021. Median age
is 31.8 expected to stay virtually the same.
Household income: Avg is $35,224; median is $26,279 (avg is
up from 33,491 in 2010 census and 33,891 in 2012; expected to rise to 38,075 in
2021; median is down from 28,295 in 2010 and down slightly from 26,476 in 2012,
expected to rise to 27,999 in 2021).
Per capita income is $12,857, up from
11,217 in 2012 and 11,977 in 2010; projected to rise to 14,050 in 2021.
[Households by income under $15,000 at 31.2 percent, our top income category; up from
26.4 percent in 2010 census and projected to decline to 29.5 percent in 2021. ]
Households by poverty status ($24,250 for family of 4):
44.4
percent below the poverty line (23 percent of those with children; compared to
13.9 percent nationally and 7.9 percent nationally with children).
Households without retirement income: 91.6 percent compared
to 81.5 nationally.
Extremely Non-traditional family structures: below avg
married and two parent families. 41.9 percent never married up from 37.7 in
2012 and compared to national avg of 32.9 ; 35 percent married down from 41.8
percent in 2012 and compared to 50.2 nationally; 23.1 divorced/widowed compared
to 20.6 in 2012 and 16.9 nationally. Female head of household 35.2 percent up
from 32.5 in 2012 compared to 13 percent nationally. Male head of household is
7.4 percent compared to 4.9 percent nationally.
Education: very low. 84.4 percent over 25yo graduated from
high school (up from 73.3 percent in 2012) compared to national avg of 86.4 percent,
but college graduates 8.3 percent of those over 25 (compared to 7.6 percent in
2012) and compared to 29.4 percent in US. Currently 15.4 percent enrolled in
college compared to national avg of 28.4 percent.
Employment and Occupation: 40.8 percent employed compared to
58.1 nationally; 10.8 percent unemployed compared to 5.6 nationally; 48.3 not
in labor force compared to 36.3 nationally.
53.4 percent blue collar down from 56.9 in 2012, and compared
to 38.5 percent nationally; 46.5 percent white collar up from 43 in 2012 and
compared to 61.5 nationally; of white collar, 24.1 is administrative clerical
compared to 16 nationally.
Housing: owner occupied 54 percent down from 58.8 percent in
2012 and compared to 65 percent nationally; renter at 46 percent up from 42
percent in 2012 and compared to 35 percent nationally. Median rent as of 2013
is $790 compared to $904 nationally. In 2012 rent was $513 avg.
Largest category, 42 percent of owner occupied homes, had
property value under $40,000 compared to just 7.2 percent nationally.
Some 65.5 percent of homes were built between 1950 and 1969.
In 2012 study Vacant
Units: 41.8 percent abandoned, not for rent or for sale. No figures
in 2016 study.
Transportation: Almost
13 percent no vehicle, some 42.2 percent with one vehicle. Some 51.9 percent
travel up to 30 minutes to work.
Culture:
Metro Multi-Ethnic
Diversity 46.2 percent down slightly from 46.3 percent in 2012 of all
households compared to 2.7 percent nationally.
Metro Multi-Ethnic
Diversity: younger segment than most, still contains a number of individuals in
40s and 50s. single parent families and households with five or more persons
ranks high, and overall household size is somewhat above average. Income and
education levels low. Use of public transportation is double the national average
and car pooling is higher than national average for this form of transportation.
Faith involvement far above average in this segment: Rather than
have a strong leader they prefer to be left on their own without interference;
twelve step programs, youth social programs, personal or family counseling,
church sponsored day school preferences.
Struggling Black households 34.4 percent down
from 35.8 percent in 2012 compared to 2.5 percent nationally.
Struggling Black
Households: This segment is concentrated in urban areas particularly in
the South. Almost half of adults are without high school diplomas, median
household income is far below the national average, and four in ten households
own no vehicle. This segment leads all other groups in watching Saturday
mid-day and afternoon television. Strong faith involvement and belief in God
are well above the national average. Primary concerns are Racial/Ethnic
Prejudice, Affordable Housing (ranks number one), Neighborhood Gangs,
Neighborhood Crime and Safety (ranks number two), Abusive Relationships and
Alcohol/Drug Abuse. This segment ranks nearly last in concern for Recreation or
Leisure Time. Contributions to religious organizations, charities and
educational institutions are more or less average. Asked to identify programs
and characteristics they would prefer in a church, these households are more
likely to indicate Bible Study and Prayer Groups (ranks number two), Spiritual
Retreats, Twelve Step Programs, Food Resources and Daycare Services.
Household concerns: racial ethnic prejudice, finding
spiritual teaching, neighborhood gangs, crime and safety, finding good church,
affordable housing
II.
Unincorporated Turley Neighborhood of
our Service Area
Population: 2,432 down from 2,748 in 2012 and projected to
rise to 2,460 in 2021.
14.9 percent decline from 2000 at time national population
increased 14.6 percent.
Diversity very low 12 of 50 groups; top segment 36.7percent
of all households is laboring country families. Racial ethnic diversity however
very high; Anglos represent 55 percent and others 44.5 percent. Native
Americans and Hispanics and others 16.5 percent. Hispanics projected to
increase by 13.5 percent by 2021.
Whites at 55.6 percent expected to decline to 54.9 percent in
2021; African American at 14.7 percent expected to decline to 13.6 percent down
from 16.1 percent in 2010 census; Hispanics at 12.5 percent expected to rise to
14 percent in 2021 compared to 10.5 percent in 2010 census; Native Americans
and others 17.3 percent staying about the same in 2021 and from the 2010 census
as well.
Generations: largest group is Survivors (35 to 55), 27.1
percent of total. Boomers (56 to 73) make up 20.9, most over-represented group
compared to national 19.5 percent.
Women make up 50.3 percent of population.
Average age is 39.3; median age is 39.5.
Household income: $49,446 up from 2010 census of $43,886 and
expected to rise to $51,865; median household income is $37,070 up from 2010
census 36,507 and expected to rise to $40,022 in 2021; Per capita income is
$18,929 up from 2010 census of $16,538 and expected to rise to $20,029 in 2021.
Largest income category is those making under 15,000 at 18.7
percent
Household below poverty line 20.2 percent, 11.9 percent with
children. . Some 82.6 percent without retirement income.
Housing: owner occupied 71.5 percent, renter 28.5 percent,
median rent $751. Higher percentage 23.1 of mobile homes compared to 7.2
nationally; some 40.5 percent of homes owned are under $40,000 property value.
Some 42.2 percent of homes built from 1959 and earlier, including 23.1 percent
1949 and earlier.
Nontraditional family structures but Married 51 percent,
divorced/widowed 21.4 percent, single never married 27.7 percent. Female head
of household 16.3 percent.
Education extremely low. 78 percent of those 25 and over have
high school compared to 86.4 percent, college graduates account for 9.7 percent
compared to national average of 29.4. Enrolled in college is 17.4 percent.
Household concerns that are unusually high: finding good church,
spiritual teaching, gangs, divorce, teen/child problems, alcohol/drug abuse.