Our 2016 Area Demographics and Disparities

Quick Look at New Data for our Area 

Served by A Third Place Community Foundation

2016

Population

City of Tulsa area Served by Us: north of 46^th St.

Population declined twice as much from 2012 as was projected to, down 11.2 percent from then, down 19.9 percent from 2000 at same time as national population grew by 14.6 percent; a difference gap of nearly 35 percent; now 9,082. In next five years projected to increase by 1.2 percent compared to national projection of 3.7 percent.

Unincorporated area Served by Us: generally north of 56^th St. to 76^th St.

Population declined 11.4 percent from 2012, and has declined 14.9 percent from 2000 as the national population increased by 14.6 percent, a gap of some 29.5 percent; it is projected to rise barely to .01 percent by 2021. Currently 2,432.

Total population served is 11,514.

Ethnicity

City Side: Anglos 15.5 percent, expected to rise to 17.7; All others 84.5 percent; African American population 69.3 percent (a drop from 85.5 percent in 2012), projected to continue decline in five years to 64.7 percent. Note that 50 years ago there was virtually zero percent African American population in the area. Hispanics at 4.7 up from 2.2 percent in 2012, projected to rise to 5.5 percent in five years.

County side: Anglos at 55.6 percent expected to decline to 54.9 percent in 2021; African American at 14.7 percent expected to decline to 13.6 percent. Hispanics at 12.5 percent expected to rise to 14 percent in 2021. Native Americans and others 17.3 percent staying about the same in 2021. 

Age

City Side: Millenials 28.6 percent are top category but have declined from 34. 1 percent in 2012 and are projected to decline more to 26.6 percent.   
Generation Z (0 to 14) 25.7 (most overrepresented group in the area) projected to rise to 33.2 percent in 2021, up from 15.8 in 2010 census and up from 19.1 percent in 2012 study.As the older populations decrease, the newest generation will automatically see its percentages increase; in multi generational families? families before school age?
So those born 1982 and later (0 to 34 years old) account for 44.3 percent of our population in this area;not much economic accumulation. Median age is 31.8

County Side: Survivors (age 35 to 55) 27.1% of the total population in the area. Boomers (age 56 to 73) make up 20.9% of the population which compared to a national average of 19.5% makes them the most over-represented group in the area. Median age is 39.5. 

 Income

City Side: Per capita income is $12,857, up from 11,217 in 2012. projected to rise to 14,050 in 2021. Oklahoma per capita income is $23,094. Median household income is $26,279. State median is $42,979.

Some 31.2 percent of our Households have average income under $15,000 at 31.2 percent, our top income percentage category;  this number has risen from 26.4 percent in 2010 census; projected to decline to 29.5 percent in 2021.

Some 44.4 percent of households fall below the povery line, and 23 percent of those have children. Poverty status is below $24,250 for family of 4. Compares to 13.9 percent nationally, and 7.9 percent with children.  

Households without retirement income: 91.6 percent compared to 81.5 nationally.

County Side: Per capita income is $18,929, expected to rise to $20,029 in five years.  Median household income is $37,070, expected to rise to $40,022.

Largest income category is those making under 15,000 at 18.7 percent. Household below poverty line 20.2 percent, 11.9 percent with children. . Some 82.6 percent without retirement income.

Education

City Side:  84.4 percent over 25yo graduated from high school (up from 73.3 percent in 2012) compared to national avg of 86.4 percent, but college graduates 8.3 percent of those over 25 (compared to 7.6 percent in 2012) and compared to 29.4 percent in US. Currently 15.4 percent enrolled in college compared to national avg of 28.4 percent.

County Side: 78 percent of those 25 and over have high school, college graduates account for 9.7 percent, Enrolled in college is 17.4 percent.

Employment

City Side: unemployment is 10.8 percent compared to 5.6 percent nationally, and 4.1 percent in Oklahoma.

County Side: unemployment is 8.3 percent.

Transportation

City side: Almost 13 percent no vehicle, some 42.2 percent with one vehicle. Some 51.9 percent travel up to 30 minutes to work. 17 percent travel up to 45 minutes;  

County Side: 4.2 percent no vehicle; 34.2 with one vehicle; 47.4 percent travel up to 30 minutes to work; 20.9 percent travel up to 45 minutes to work.

Cultural Concerns

City Side: Metro Multi-Ethnic Diversity and Struggling Black Families are top two cultural categories.

MMED--younger segment than most, still contains a number of individuals in 40s and 50s. single parent families and households with five or more persons ranks high, and overall household size is somewhat above average. Income and education levels low. Use of public transportation is double the national average and car pooling is higher than national average for this form of transportation. Faith involvement far above average in this segment:  Rather than have a strong leader they prefer to be left on their own without interference; concern for twelve step programs, youth social programs, personal or family counseling, church sponsored day school preferences.

SBF--This segment is concentrated in urban areas particularly in the South. Almost half of adults are without high school diplomas, median household income is far below the national average, and four in ten households own no vehicle. This segment leads all other groups in watching Saturday mid-day and afternoon television. Strong faith involvement and belief in God are well above the national average. Primary concerns are Racial/Ethnic Prejudice, Affordable Housing (ranks number one), Neighborhood Gangs, Neighborhood Crime and Safety (ranks number two), Abusive Relationships and Alcohol/Drug Abuse. This segment ranks nearly last in concern for Recreation or Leisure Time.

Household concerns: racial ethnic prejudice, finding spiritual teaching, neighborhood gangs, crime and safety, finding good church, affordable housing

County Side: Laboring Country Families (36.6 percent) and Working Country Consumers (15.7 percent).

LCF— average in median household income. Little more than half of the women are in the labor force. Home ownership is high, with housing units typically being single family dwellings, though property values are lower than most.

Faith involvement is above the national average in all categories. Belief in God is high, and acceptance of the changing racial/ethic face of America is low.

The primary concerns of this group are Divorce, Finding Spiritual Teaching, Abusive Relationships, Finding a Good Church, Teen/Child Problems and Parenting Skills.

WCC--- This segment is evenly split between urban and rural populations. It consists of persons of all ages, with income and education somewhat below average. Blue collar employment is high, as are precision production and craft

occupations. Over two-thirds of all homes are single-unit structures and mobile homes make up a noticeable percentage of the total. The primary concerns of this group are Adequate Food, Health Insurance, Day-to-Day Financial Worries, Finding Spiritual Teaching, Abusive Relationships and Stress.

Below is some background summaries. 

I. Our Service Area within the City Limits

Population Overall Continues Dropping

9,082 residents, a drop of 19.9 percent since the year 2000 at same time US population grew by 14.6 percent.

Since our 2012 Percept Data Study, this area has lost 1,155 residents or a drop of 11.2 percent (our 2012 study projected a decline of 5.1 percent, so it has more than doubled the decline)

This parallels with the closure in 2012 of many of our neighborhood schools by TPS, though all of them have now been reopened as charter or other focused schools and not necessarily serving just the neighborhood area.It also reflects the continued difficulty in jobs, transportation, and abandoned structures, loss of post office.

But Projected to Grow: by 2021 the area is projected to increase by 1.2 percent, or 110 additional persons compared to national growth of 3.7 percent.

Lifestyle Diversity: overall low (12 or 50 lifestyles represented; evidence of income and other segregations; metro multi-ethnic diversity is most prevalent with 46 percent.  However, racial and ethnic diversity is extremely high compared to national avg; Anglos 15.5 percent (projected to increase to 17.7 percent); others 84.5 percent compared to national 39 percent nationally.

African Americans at 69.3 percent of this population (was at 85.5 percent in 2012 and had been projected to rise; remember that 50 years ago there was virtually zero percent African Americans in this area). Projection for next five years: Native Americans and others (Hispanics) projected to be fastest growing and increasing numbers by 16.6 percent. In 2010 census Hispanics were 3.8 percent; in 2012 study were down to 2.2 percent (effect of state legislation causing cultural retrenching); now at 4.7 percent and expected to continue rising to 5.5 percent. Native Americans, Asian, Others now at 10.5 percent, an increase from 5.3 percent in 2012 study (which predicted a slow decline) and predicted to rise to 12.1 percent in 2021 compared to 8.6 percent in 2010 census.

[as the African American population percentages decline, the percentages of remaining ethnicities automatically rises].

Gender: 53.8 percent female up from 53.6 in 2012 study, down from 54.2 in 2010 census and projected slight decline 53.5 percent in 2021. Male at 46.2 expected to rise to 46.5 in 2021.

Generations: Millenials 28.6 percent projected decline to 26.6, down from 34. 1 percent in 2012;  

Generation Z (0 to 14) 25.7 (most overrepresented group in the area) projected to rise to 33.2 percent in 2021, up from 15.8 in 2010 census and up from 19.1 percent in 2012 study.As the older populations decrease, the newest generation will automatically see its percentages increase; in multi generational families? families before school age?

So those born 1982 and later (0 to 34 years old) account for 44.3 percent of our population in this area;not much economic accumulation.

Survivors (1961 to 1981) at 23.3 percent up from 22.9 percent in 2012, down from 25.5 in 2010 and projected to decline to 22 percent in 2021. Boomers, 1943 to 1960 births, 17.2 percent which is up from 16.4 percent in 2012 study though down from 20.1 percent in 2010 census, projected to decline to 14.5 percent in 2021. Silents and Builders, 1942 and earlier births, account for 5.2 percent (builders just .2 percent) projected to decline to 3.7 percent in 2021 down from 7.4 percent in 2010 and 7.5 percent in 2012…..Average age is 34.6 which is up from 31.4 in 2012 and projected to rise to 35.1 in 2021. Median age is 31.8 expected to stay virtually the same.

Household income: Avg is $35,224; median is $26,279 (avg is up from 33,491 in 2010 census and 33,891 in 2012; expected to rise to 38,075 in 2021; median is down from 28,295 in 2010 and down slightly from 26,476 in 2012, expected to rise to 27,999 in 2021).

Per capita income is $12,857, up from 11,217 in 2012 and 11,977 in 2010; projected to rise to 14,050 in 2021.

[Households by income under $15,000 at 31.2 percent, our top income category; up from 26.4 percent in 2010 census and projected to decline to 29.5 percent in 2021. ]

Households by poverty status ($24,250 for family of 4): 
44.4 percent below the poverty line (23 percent of those with children; compared to 13.9 percent nationally and 7.9 percent nationally with children).

Households without retirement income: 91.6 percent compared to 81.5 nationally.

Extremely Non-traditional family structures: below avg married and two parent families. 41.9 percent never married up from 37.7 in 2012 and compared to national avg of 32.9 ; 35 percent married down from 41.8 percent in 2012 and compared to 50.2 nationally; 23.1 divorced/widowed compared to 20.6 in 2012 and 16.9 nationally. Female head of household 35.2 percent up from 32.5 in 2012 compared to 13 percent nationally. Male head of household is 7.4 percent compared to 4.9 percent nationally.

Education: very low. 84.4 percent over 25yo graduated from high school (up from 73.3 percent in 2012) compared to national avg of 86.4 percent, but college graduates 8.3 percent of those over 25 (compared to 7.6 percent in 2012) and compared to 29.4 percent in US. Currently 15.4 percent enrolled in college compared to national avg of 28.4 percent.

Employment and Occupation: 40.8 percent employed compared to 58.1 nationally; 10.8 percent unemployed compared to 5.6 nationally; 48.3 not in labor force compared to 36.3 nationally.

53.4 percent blue collar down from 56.9 in 2012, and compared to 38.5 percent nationally; 46.5 percent white collar up from 43 in 2012 and compared to 61.5 nationally; of white collar, 24.1 is administrative clerical compared to 16 nationally.

Housing: owner occupied 54 percent down from 58.8 percent in 2012 and compared to 65 percent nationally; renter at 46 percent up from 42 percent in 2012 and compared to 35 percent nationally. Median rent as of 2013 is $790 compared to $904 nationally. In 2012 rent was $513 avg.

Largest category, 42 percent of owner occupied homes, had property value under $40,000 compared to just 7.2 percent nationally.

Some 65.5 percent of homes were built between 1950 and 1969.

In 2012 study Vacant Units: 41.8 percent abandoned, not for rent or for sale. No figures in 2016 study.

Transportation: Almost 13 percent no vehicle, some 42.2 percent with one vehicle. Some 51.9 percent travel up to 30 minutes to work.

Culture:

Metro Multi-Ethnic Diversity 46.2 percent down slightly from 46.3 percent in 2012 of all households compared to 2.7 percent nationally.

Metro Multi-Ethnic Diversity: younger segment than most, still contains a number of individuals in 40s and 50s. single parent families and households with five or more persons ranks high, and overall household size is somewhat above average. Income and education levels low. Use of public transportation is double the national average and car pooling is higher than national average for this form of transportation. Faith involvement far above average in this segment:  Rather than have a strong leader they prefer to be left on their own without interference; twelve step programs, youth social programs, personal or family counseling, church sponsored day school preferences.

 Struggling Black households 34.4 percent down from 35.8 percent in 2012 compared to 2.5 percent nationally.

Struggling Black Households: This segment is concentrated in urban areas particularly in the South. Almost half of adults are without high school diplomas, median household income is far below the national average, and four in ten households own no vehicle. This segment leads all other groups in watching Saturday mid-day and afternoon television. Strong faith involvement and belief in God are well above the national average. Primary concerns are Racial/Ethnic Prejudice, Affordable Housing (ranks number one), Neighborhood Gangs, Neighborhood Crime and Safety (ranks number two), Abusive Relationships and Alcohol/Drug Abuse. This segment ranks nearly last in concern for Recreation or Leisure Time. Contributions to religious organizations, charities and educational institutions are more or less average. Asked to identify programs and characteristics they would prefer in a church, these households are more likely to indicate Bible Study and Prayer Groups (ranks number two), Spiritual Retreats, Twelve Step Programs, Food Resources and Daycare Services.

Household concerns: racial ethnic prejudice, finding spiritual teaching, neighborhood gangs, crime and safety, finding good church, affordable housing

II.                  Unincorporated Turley Neighborhood of our Service Area

Population: 2,432 down from 2,748 in 2012 and projected to rise to 2,460 in 2021.

14.9 percent decline from 2000 at time national population increased 14.6 percent.

Diversity very low 12 of 50 groups; top segment 36.7percent of all households is laboring country families. Racial ethnic diversity however very high; Anglos represent 55 percent and others 44.5 percent. Native Americans and Hispanics and others 16.5 percent. Hispanics projected to increase by 13.5 percent by 2021.

Whites at 55.6 percent expected to decline to 54.9 percent in 2021; African American at 14.7 percent expected to decline to 13.6 percent down from 16.1 percent in 2010 census; Hispanics at 12.5 percent expected to rise to 14 percent in 2021 compared to 10.5 percent in 2010 census; Native Americans and others 17.3 percent staying about the same in 2021 and from the 2010 census as well.

Generations: largest group is Survivors (35 to 55), 27.1 percent of total. Boomers (56 to 73) make up 20.9, most over-represented group compared to national 19.5 percent.

Women make up 50.3 percent of population.

Average age is 39.3; median age is 39.5.

Household income: $49,446 up from 2010 census of $43,886 and expected to rise to $51,865; median household income is $37,070 up from 2010 census 36,507 and expected to rise to $40,022 in 2021; Per capita income is $18,929 up from 2010 census of $16,538 and expected to rise to $20,029 in 2021.

Largest income category is those making under 15,000 at 18.7 percent

Household below poverty line 20.2 percent, 11.9 percent with children. . Some 82.6 percent without retirement income.

Housing: owner occupied 71.5 percent, renter 28.5 percent, median rent $751. Higher percentage 23.1 of mobile homes compared to 7.2 nationally; some 40.5 percent of homes owned are under $40,000 property value. Some 42.2 percent of homes built from 1959 and earlier, including 23.1 percent 1949 and earlier.

Nontraditional family structures but Married 51 percent, divorced/widowed 21.4 percent, single never married 27.7 percent. Female head of household 16.3 percent.

Education extremely low. 78 percent of those 25 and over have high school compared to 86.4 percent, college graduates account for 9.7 percent compared to national average of 29.4. Enrolled in college is 17.4 percent.

Household concerns that are unusually high: finding good church, spiritual teaching, gangs, divorce, teen/child problems, alcohol/drug abuse.